The commercial insurance market in late 2026 is a split market. Property insurance has become noticeably more competitive, and many buyers are seeing decreases at renewal. At the same time, liability lines tied to auto accidents and large jury verdicts, especially commercial auto and umbrella, keep moving up. Where your business lands depends heavily on what you do: a business with mostly property exposure may see relief, while a fleet operator or contractor with heavy auto and liability exposure may not.

This article summarizes what published market surveys show as of November 2026, what is behind the trends, and how to prepare for renewal. Market conditions change quarter to quarter and vary by carrier, state and account, so treat these figures as context for your own renewal, not a forecast of it.

-5%Global composite rate change, Q3 2026 (Marsh)
-10%U.S. property rates, Q3 2026 (Marsh)
+6%U.S. casualty rates, Q3 2026 (Marsh)
+5.3%Umbrella premiums, Q2 2026 (CIAB)

The big picture: softening overall, firm in casualty

Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index, released in October 2026, reported that global commercial insurance rates fell 5% in the third quarter of 2026, the ninth consecutive quarterly decline. In the United States, the composite rate fell 1%. U.S. property rates fell 10%, while U.S. casualty rates rose 6%, slightly less than the 7% increase in the second quarter. U.S. financial and professional lines rose 1%, and U.S. cyber rates were flat.

The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) survey for the second quarter of 2026 found the average premium change across all account sizes was a 2.0% decrease. Large accounts saw the biggest decreases at 3.7%, medium accounts 1.9%, and small accounts 0.5%. Premiums fell in ten lines of business. That last point matters for small businesses: much of the softening has gone to large accounts, and small-account pricing has been close to flat.

Line by line

LineRecent directionWhat is behind it
PropertyDown: -6.3% in CIAB's Q2 survey, the largest decline of any line; -10% for U.S. property in Marsh's Q3 indexMore insurer and reinsurer capacity competing for business after several years of steep increases
Commercial autoUp: +4.5% (CIAB Q2)Large verdicts and rising claim severity in auto accidents
Umbrella and excessUp: +5.3% (CIAB Q2), the 35th consecutive quarter of increasesNuclear verdicts in commercial auto claims; 40% of CIAB respondents reported decreased umbrella capacity
Workers' compensationDown: -3.2% (CIAB Q2), the 18th consecutive quarter of decreasesYears of strong underwriting results, though margins are narrowing
CyberDown: -3.2% (CIAB Q2); U.S. flat in Marsh's Q3 indexCompetition and more capacity, with underwriting still focused on security controls
Management liabilityGenerally down; CIAB reported decreases for D&O and employment practicesOngoing competition in financial and professional lines

CIAB's report also noted that carriers have been offsetting the increases they need in umbrella and auto by lowering prices elsewhere, mainly in workers' compensation and commercial property. For a buyer, that means the total premium on a package of policies can hide very different movements underneath.

Why liability keeps rising

The industry often calls the trend "social inflation" or "legal system abuse": claim costs growing faster than general inflation because of larger jury awards, attorney involvement, litigation funding and longer, more expensive lawsuits. A joint analysis by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and the Casualty Actuarial Society estimated that legal system abuse and related trends contributed $231.6 billion to $281.2 billion in increased liability insurance losses over 2015 to 2024, across personal auto, commercial auto, other liability and product liability lines. The authors note that the line-level figures also include general inflation.

For businesses, the effect shows up in three places: higher auto and umbrella premiums, smaller umbrella limits available from any one carrier, and more careful underwriting of fleets, contractors and habitational property. Building a tower of umbrella and excess limits often takes more carriers than it used to. Our article on critical insurance gaps discusses why limits deserve a fresh look.

Workers' compensation, nationally and in Washington

Nationally, workers' compensation remains profitable. The National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) reported a preliminary calendar-year 2025 combined ratio of 91 for private carriers, about five points higher than the prior year, which NCCI attributed mainly to higher loss and underwriting expense ratios. Profitable, but less so, is why rate decreases have been getting smaller.

Washington is different. It is one of the states where most employers must buy workers' compensation from the state fund run by the Department of Labor & Industries (L&I) or qualify to self-insure, so private-market pricing trends do not apply directly. On September 22, 2026, L&I proposed a 4.9% increase in the average hourly rate for 2027, which it estimated at about $1.44 more per week per full-time employee, citing rising wage, disability and medical costs. L&I said 311 of 326 risk classes would see higher base rates, that final rates would be adopted on November 30, and that they take effect January 1, 2027. Your own rate depends on your risk classes and your experience factor. See our guides to the experience modification rate and lowering workers' comp premiums.

What it means for different businesses

Property-heavy businesses

Owners of buildings, warehouses, manufacturers and multifamily properties have the most room to negotiate. It is a good time to revisit deductibles, wind and earthquake terms and limits that were cut during the hard market, while keeping building values current.

Fleets and trucking

Expect continued pressure on commercial auto and umbrella. Driver selection, telematics and safety records carry real weight in underwriting. See fleet insurance optimization.

Contractors

General liability and umbrella pricing depends heavily on the type of work, subcontractor controls and loss history. Contract-required limits may cost more to build even as property pricing eases.

Small businesses

Package and BOP pricing has moved less than large-account pricing. Coverage terms, deductibles and how the program is structured may matter more than rate alone. See BOP or separate policies.

How to prepare for your renewal

A softer market rewards buyers who show up prepared. Underwriters still price the risk in front of them, and clear information helps a broker make the case.

  • Start 90 to 120 days out for larger or more complex programs, so there is time to approach several markets.
  • Update exposures: payroll, revenue, vehicle schedules, driver lists, property values and new locations or operations.
  • Tell the story behind your losses. Explain what happened on significant claims and what you changed afterward.
  • Document risk controls: safety programs, fleet telematics, sprinkler and alarm systems, cyber controls and contract risk transfer.
  • Review limits, not just price. Compare umbrella limits with contract requirements and with what a serious auto or premises claim could cost today.
  • Ask about terms as well as rate: deductibles, sublimits, exclusions and endorsements that may have tightened in prior years and could be restored now.

A note on switching carriers. A lower quote is worth evaluating carefully. Compare forms and endorsements line by line, check the carrier's financial strength and claims handling, and consider the value of a long relationship with an incumbent carrier when the market turns again.

When to call your broker

Call us well before your renewal date, when your operations change significantly, or when a contract asks for limits you do not carry. As a broker, we compare options across the market and shape coverage around how your business works. Our annual insurance program review and carrier negotiation and market access services are built for exactly this.

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